The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warned in its report Limiting Overshoot, released on 2 September 2026, that global warming is set to exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, likely within the next few years. The threshold is the central long-term temperature goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
- Even the most optimistic scenario projects that global temperatures could peak at around 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels during this century.
- The report warns that exceeding 1.5°C will increase the risks of extreme heatwaves, floods, wildfires, rising sea levels, ecosystem damage and irreversible climate tipping points.
- UNEP recommends an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway involving rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, a transition away from fossil fuels, expansion of renewable energy and carbon dioxide removal to bring temperatures back below 1.5°C.
