India’s 2026 southwest monsoon is being significantly affected by a strong El Niño event. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall during early June was substantially below normal, and the seasonal monsoon is expected to remain weaker than average. This situation raises concerns about agriculture, food prices, water resources, and overall economic growth.
Key Highlights
- Rainfall Deficit: IMD reported a rainfall deficit of up to 64% during June 4–15, 2026.
- Monsoon Forecast: Seasonal rainfall is expected to be around 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which falls in the below-normal category.
- Agriculture at Risk: Rain-fed crops such as rice, pulses, cotton, and sugarcane may experience lower yields.
- Economic Concerns: Reduced agricultural production could increase food inflation and slow rural economic activity.
- Most Affected Regions: Central, eastern, and southern parts of India are expected to face the greatest impact.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with the warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It is part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
How It Affects India
- Weakens the trade winds over the Pacific Ocean.
- Alters global atmospheric circulation.
- Reduces moisture transport towards India.
- Often leads to weaker monsoon rainfall, drought-like conditions, and higher temperatures.
