On December 16, 2024, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a vote of confidence, triggering a snap election set for February 23, 2025. Germany’s new hybrid electoral system combines single-member constituencies with proportional representation, fixing the Bundestag at 630 seats (down from 735). If a party wins more constituency seats than its proportional vote share, some seats will remain vacant, starting with the narrowest-margin victories.
The system retains the 5% national vote threshold for parliamentary entry, with a rule allowing parties to bypass this if they win at least three constituency seats. This mechanism has helped smaller parties like the Left in the past. Current polls predict a highly unpredictable election, with major parties like CDU/CSU leading (34%) but facing competition from the far-right AfD (17%), and smaller parties like the Free Democrats and Left struggling to meet thresholds.
Friedrich Merz of the CDU is a frontrunner to become chancellor, likely needing a coalition due to the fragmented political landscape. The far-right AfD is unlikely to form part of any coalition, as mainstream parties view it as undemocratic.
